Motionless-Dish
0x64b460a36d9d160816e6ae799ff117a9cc1e055e
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$93.58
Total PnL
$-608.95
Realised
$45.26
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
4457 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.11
$-24.01
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
728 shares @ 4.8¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.11
$-9.57
- YES
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
5542 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.94
$-237.26
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
4 shares @ 67.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.43
$0.43
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
2721 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-14.49
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
2481 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
2191 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-15.34
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
2070 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-42.16
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
1684 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
1328 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-6.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?$6.93May 3, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?$11.11May 3, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?$34.81May 3, 15:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$11.31May 3, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$34.75May 3, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?$84.93May 3, 09:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?$28.43May 3, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?$38.96May 3, 04:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?$55.13May 3, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$10.70May 3, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?$25.90May 3, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?$11.87May 3, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$6.57May 3, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?$16.10May 3, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$14.82May 2, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?$6.60May 2, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?$4.64May 2, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?$5.41May 2, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?$2.30May 2, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$20.99May 2, 17:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $22.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 18:45 UTC
- Last active
- May 3, 18:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.