TechMulti-outcomeExpires May 2, 2026

Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$6.2K

Liquidity

$3.3K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 27, 2026, 17:00Apr 29, 2026, 19:50
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 1.9× turnover

    $6.2k traded against $3.3k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 68h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $3.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  • 04
    Resolution proximity

    Expiry in 68h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 68 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 68.2h

    HIGH
  • 19:50Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 68h.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventElon Musk # tweets April 30 - May 2, 2026?
Category · Tech

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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