Tough-Investigator
0x6630c34aa5836d4610fb6303d0ee9d966cd42f4e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$37.3K
Total PnL
$2.6K
Realised
$319.71
Win rate
83%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
10170 shares @ 91.8¢·now 94.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.6K
$296.62
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
4462 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.4K
$118.15
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3543 shares @ 84.2¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.1K
$83.22
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
2813 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.8K
$105.99
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.0K
$5.00
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
2000 shares @ 93.5¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$109.00
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
2168 shares @ 77.8¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.8K
$122.63
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
1724 shares @ 87.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.6K
$112.54
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
1325 shares @ 88.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.3K
$121.71
- NO
Iran leadership change by September 30?
1297 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.2K
$19.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$0.27Jul 28, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$996.00Jul 28, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$83.73Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?$1.57Jul 28, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$236.40Jul 28, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$386.77Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$13.90Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$60.43Jul 28, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$1.00Jul 28, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$118.49Jul 28, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$1.60Jul 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$6.94Jul 28, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$560.25Jul 28, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$13.38Jul 28, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$217.50Jul 28, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$46.85Jul 28, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$32.00Jul 28, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$53.23Jul 28, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$42.50Jul 28, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$121.67Jul 28, 08:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $187.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 07:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.