Idealistic-Party
0x6635c93e27767f4a5f066bcbffe51e6ab159b909
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$75.82
Total PnL
$-67.51
Realised
$-0.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
10 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$10.04
$0.10
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 52.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.53
$1.20
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
24 shares @ 39.0¢·now 39.4¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$9.50
$0.10
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
66 shares @ 13.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.53
$-0.98
- YES
Will AT&T (T) Q2 total revenue be above $31.8B?
9 shares @ 55.7¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$6.15
$1.15
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.84
$0.13
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.55
$0.38
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
6 shares @ 90.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.48
$-0.29
- NO
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
7 shares @ 79.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.14
$-0.17
- NO
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
9 shares @ 61.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.80
$-0.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?$2.60Jul 8, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$9.63Jul 8, 01:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lucy Powell be the next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?$4.96Jul 8, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lucy Powell be the next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?$7.25Jul 8, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$5.31Jul 7, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?$8.52Jul 7, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Argentina vs Egypt FIFA World Cup Match?$7.46Jul 7, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?$5.00Jul 7, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "What a Save" during the Argentina vs Egypt FIFA World Cup Match?$6.04Jul 7, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Argentina vs Egypt FIFA World Cup Match?$5.59Jul 7, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$9.94Jul 7, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?$5.77Jul 6, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.17Jul 6, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AT&T (T) Q2 total revenue be above $31.8B?$5.09Jul 5, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$4.98Jul 5, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$4.99Jul 5, 03:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$4.86Jul 5, 01:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?$28.59Jul 5, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?$20.93Jul 5, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?$9.93Jul 5, 01:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $7.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 02:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 13:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.