Total-Logo
0x66834eefe81eb46b184eda12a4a8720bf809f5f4
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
139
Open notional
$491.42
Total PnL
$-19.1K
Realised
$27.96
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 139- YES
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
129 shares @ 75.1¢·now 80.6¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$103.97
$7.09
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
80 shares @ 70.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$79.88
$23.88
- NO
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
71 shares @ 81.9¢·now 84.2¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$59.78
$1.63
- NO
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
61 shares @ 80.6¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$59.48
$10.31
- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
69 shares @ 79.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$58.30
$3.79
- BNK FEARX
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
68 shares @ 79.9¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$54.06
$-0.29
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
52 shares @ 59.5¢·now 74.2¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$38.56
$7.62
- HANWHA LIFE ESPORTS
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
52 shares @ 70.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$35.62
$-0.78
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
87 shares @ 25.0¢·now 1.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.04
$-20.71
- YES
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
63 shares @ 43.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.72
$-26.37
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$77.00Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- REDEEMChicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals$137.00Jul 29, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group$36.95Jul 29, 02:22 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$5.94Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYCleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$38.67Jul 28, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-07-28?$14.3KJul 28, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group$54.90Jul 28, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals$72.95Jul 28, 14:31 UTC
- REDEEMChicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals$137.00Jul 28, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$158.00Jul 28, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMBaltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers$158.00Jul 28, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$60.30Jul 27, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYReserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$49.64Jul 27, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals$74.32Jul 27, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers$77.81Jul 27, 15:15 UTC
- TRADESELLMubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer$65.66Jul 25, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer$82.51Jul 25, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$90.00Jul 25, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYCleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays$27.01Jul 24, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYHouston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox$31.49Jul 24, 23:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $738.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 15:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.