Deserted-Fabric
0x66a718e01090c70fab7c6ea06b845ee05c816569
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
6
Open notional
$7.84
Total PnL
$-80.29
Realised
$75.56
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?
17 shares @ 30.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.80
$1.70
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
1 shares @ 33.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.66
$0.32
- YES
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.20
$-0.74
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
1 shares @ 53.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.18
$-0.34
- YES
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?
733 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-153.93
- YES
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
22 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.86
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?$30.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$258.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$0.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMFC Annecy vs. Clermont Foot 63: O/U 3.5$0.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMLevante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Super Bowl?$0.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?$0.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?$645.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$0.00Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$8.00Apr 27, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Annecy vs. Clermont Foot 63: O/U 3.5$115.14Apr 23, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$134.08Apr 23, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLForeign intervention in Gaza by June 30?$168.96Apr 21, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?$2.24Apr 12, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?$3.70Apr 12, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?$3.68Apr 12, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$132.12Apr 11, 07:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $115.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 07:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 11:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.