Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?

1. 1

   Down 6pp over 24h

   Now 23¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 7.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

4. 4

   Past expiry — awaiting resolution

   Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.