Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $9.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake officially releases Iceman by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.