Instructive-Graffiti
0x674b7cdecbdc217fd259be944a9dfae02fe1f1af
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$372.12
Total PnL
$-7.6K
Realised
$-145.27
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
2475 shares @ 20.2¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$235.10
$-264.89
- YES
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
3791 shares @ 7.9¢·now 2.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.46
$-199.54
- YES
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
677 shares @ 14.8¢·now 5.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$36.56
$-63.44
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 27?
50000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
12065 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- NUGGETS
Nuggets vs. Mavericks
10001 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 24, 2025$0.00
$-100.40
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
9091 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-99.99
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 12?
7010 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?
6356 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
5909 shares @ 22.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.3K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?$20.00Apr 16, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?$20.00Apr 16, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?$50.00Apr 16, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings?$20.00Apr 16, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$20.00Apr 16, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?$10.00Apr 16, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$30.00Apr 16, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$10.00Apr 16, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$5.00Apr 16, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?$60.00Mar 5, 04:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$139.12Mar 5, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$84.68Mar 5, 04:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$200.00Mar 5, 04:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?$1.8KMar 1, 15:15 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$3.0KMar 1, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$1.0KFeb 28, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$200.00Feb 28, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$800.00Feb 28, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?$1.3KFeb 28, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?$1.3KJan 24, 04:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $263.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 3, 09:50 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 16, 08:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.