Reliable-Fallingout
0x68158d89d0c0d604b784afb1e235d8f77613e527
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$23.65
Total PnL
$-180.79
Realised
$5.37
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- YES
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
25 shares @ 32.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.38
$-1.63
- YES
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 25.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.10
$0.10
- YES
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?
25 shares @ 22.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.88
$-0.63
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?
35 shares @ 13.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.67
$-0.88
- YES
Will Ryan Robertson win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?
25 shares @ 7.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Aug 29, 2026$3.62
$1.87
- AKITA NORTHERN HAPPINETS
Sendai 89ers vs. Akita Northern Happinets
220 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-9.90
- YES
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?
100 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-12.50
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57.5 and 58 million views in week 1?
100 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will HawkEye 360's market cap be between $3.25B and $4.0B at market close on IPO day?
75 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet?$0.21Jul 29, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$3.72Jul 28, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Robertson win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?$1.75Jul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$1.28Jul 27, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?$2.09Jul 25, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?$4.40Jul 25, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?$1.38Jul 24, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?$4.69Jul 24, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?$1.37Jul 23, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$2.69Jul 23, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$0.29Jul 23, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYTodd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?$5.50Jul 21, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?$1.74Jul 21, 09:18 UTC
- REWARD$1.70Jul 21, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?$0.15Jul 21, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$0.32Jul 21, 00:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dricus Du Plessis fight Khamzat Chimaev next?$0.85Jul 20, 22:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dricus Du Plessis fight Khamzat Chimaev next?$3.40Jul 20, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?$1.57Jul 20, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dricus Du Plessis fight Khamzat Chimaev next?$6.00Jul 20, 18:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 09:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.