Cooked-Plume
0x6845ea7cb4e6c2a56a40d35e7c9c550469c578fd
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$467.62
Total PnL
$-125.17
Realised
$-5.34
Win rate
0%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
458 shares @ 53.3¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$332.05
$87.74
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
215 shares @ 46.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$108.75
$9.69
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
600 shares @ 3.2¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.10
$3.90
- YES
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
447 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.46
$-4.69
- YES
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
359 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.26
$-3.41
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
6807 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.42
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- AVALANCHE
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
431 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.72
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
200 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- AVALANCHE
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights
78 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-39.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies$23.84Aug 18, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$0.00Aug 11, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$0.65Aug 11, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$1.04Aug 7, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$1.70Aug 7, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.70Aug 7, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYTampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies AND Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs$1.00Aug 4, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$56.98Jul 30, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$72.28Jul 30, 05:47 UTC
- REDEEMFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$129.01Jul 29, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants AND Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics AND Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels AND Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres$2.00Jul 29, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.20Jul 29, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants AND Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels AND Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres$2.00Jul 28, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$50.42Jul 24, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$49.71Jul 22, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$112.17Jul 18, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$2.88Jul 18, 02:40 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$75.59Jul 17, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$27.30Jul 17, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$11.94Jul 16, 21:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $18.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 21:05 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 23:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.