Right-Undershirt
0x6b133170edaaae9d61c296ae8c7b9f43bb3bf125
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-5.3K
Realised
$-530.16
Win rate
38%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- NO
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
348 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$344.37
$1.22
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
258 shares @ 95.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$257.79
$12.09
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
796 shares @ 27.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$194.90
$-19.89
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
229 shares @ 61.8¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$152.52
$10.84
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
577 shares @ 17.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$121.25
$23.10
- NO
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?
89 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.78
$0.53
- YES
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
98 shares @ 86.3¢·now 80.7¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$78.69
$-5.47
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
102 shares @ 81.8¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$75.61
$-8.03
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
642 shares @ 25.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.85
$-86.69
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
140 shares @ 36.9¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.63
$-8.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$6.88Jul 28, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$22.15Jul 28, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5.78Jul 28, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$117.57Jul 28, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$857.20Jul 28, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$82.25Jul 28, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$16.24Jul 28, 00:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?$1.85Jul 28, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$171.85Jul 27, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$171.51Jul 27, 23:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$264.05Jul 27, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$5.85Jul 27, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$23.79Jul 27, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$11.26Jul 27, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$91.73Jul 27, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?$54.48Jul 27, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$35.98Jul 26, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$214.79Jul 26, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$1.84Jul 25, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$6.31Jul 25, 01:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $44.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 00:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.