Trustworthy-Crayon
0x6b44cdccdc280e6d0be71782f0772a6bf4b2be1e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
120
Open notional
$28.3K
Total PnL
$3.9K
Realised
$3.9K
Win rate
69%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 120- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
19174 shares @ 22.9¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.5K
$122.98
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
2792 shares @ 41.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.8K
$1.6K
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
4765 shares @ 35.8¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.1K
$413.29
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
12487 shares @ 19.5¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$-1.2K
- NO
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
1081 shares @ 73.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$967.43
$177.65
- YES
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
4114 shares @ 27.1¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$904.98
$-210.35
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?
854 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$789.76
$12.81
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-02 House seat?
845 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$781.16
$4.22
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the MO-03 House seat?
873 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$776.97
$0.00
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the IN-02 House seat?
845 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$772.72
$-4.22
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$20.00Jul 28, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$0.32Jul 28, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$3.76Jul 28, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$5.05Jul 28, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$0.08Jul 28, 09:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the KY-01 House seat?$785.38Jul 28, 04:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?$776.94Jul 28, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the SC-03 House seat?$785.38Jul 28, 02:36 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.04Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$10.70Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$59.16Jul 27, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?$17.44Jul 27, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?$82.34Jul 27, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027?$237.55Jul 27, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?$10.09Jul 27, 23:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$5.38Jul 27, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?$12.30Jul 27, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?$49.20Jul 27, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?$8.20Jul 27, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$60.10Jul 27, 16:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
61 closed markets, 69% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $333.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 23:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.