Old-Fashioned-Lumber
0x6bfbc219902b6f6acc601426d280a3adc09e3070
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$997.41
Total PnL
$32.70
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
220 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$220.00
$4.62
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
200 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$200.00
$1.80
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
206 shares @ 88.5¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$197.58
$15.34
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
200 shares @ 94.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$197.10
$9.10
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 96.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.00
$3.90
- NO
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be below 80,000 voters?
83 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$82.73
$0.08
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 110,000 and 120,000 voters?
40 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.14
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 8, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 1, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 30, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 24, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 23, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 21, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 20, 00:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.