Subtle-Creditor
0x6c2a50ee968898c5d50de31b04544f8d3329b7b5
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$3.9K
Total PnL
$39.10
Realised
$-4.06
Win rate
33%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- YES
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
272 shares @ 41.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$266.23
$154.41
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
259 shares @ 84.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$257.88
$40.10
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
304 shares @ 46.7¢·now 74.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$224.70
$82.79
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
222 shares @ 59.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$220.87
$87.90
- YES
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?
226 shares @ 89.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$209.41
$7.68
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
211 shares @ 85.1¢·now 75.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$158.56
$-20.77
- NO
Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?
255 shares @ 61.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$151.92
$-3.83
- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5092 shares @ 1.1¢·now 2.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$150.20
$96.73
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
148 shares @ 92.6¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$145.35
$7.94
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
294 shares @ 41.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$122.03
$1.47
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during cabinet meeting?$84.81Jul 29, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?$19.95Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?$25.35Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$4.10Jul 29, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.75Jul 29, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$44.81Jul 29, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?$2.90Jul 29, 00:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$5.27Jul 28, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.82Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.00Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.99Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.99Jul 28, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$3.64Jul 28, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$10.14Jul 28, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$6.79Jul 28, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$38.49Jul 28, 23:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 28?$5.09Jul 28, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Nobody Like Him" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$21.74Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Israel" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$129.53Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $19.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 18:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.