Embellished-Disposal
0x6c88d1399d71c4349fd89851a7f67859d5408570
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$3.7K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-1.1K
Win rate
27%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
2510 shares @ 49.6¢·now 25.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$645.07
$-599.73
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
800 shares @ 62.5¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$491.99
$-8.00
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2124 shares @ 23.0¢·now 22.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$472.65
$-15.94
- YES
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
1419 shares @ 32.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$425.69
$-28.38
- NO
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
405 shares @ 73.0¢·now 65.6¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$265.88
$-29.94
- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
621 shares @ 38.0¢·now 36.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$226.42
$-9.57
- NO
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
210 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$195.19
$8.29
- YES
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?
1955 shares @ 13.1¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$185.77
$-70.42
- YES
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?
920 shares @ 22.0¢·now 16.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$151.40
$-51.08
- NO
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
166 shares @ 82.1¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$131.66
$-4.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$12.75Jul 2, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$25.50Jul 2, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$22.95Jul 2, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$12.75Jul 2, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$25.50Jul 2, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$2.55Jul 2, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$176.09Jul 2, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$20.00Jul 2, 17:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$25.00Jul 2, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$11.00Jul 2, 17:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$11.97Jul 2, 17:28 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$7.02Jul 2, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$268.93Jul 2, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$248.85Jul 2, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$124.00Jul 2, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$124.00Jul 2, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$2.40Jul 2, 09:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$278.21Jul 2, 09:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$100.00Jul 2, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$4.00Jul 2, 09:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $77.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 17:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 19:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.