NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
Probability
21¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$7.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $7.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.4h
- 17:34SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at 2d ago (to 24¢).
Show all 8 hour-by-hour ticks
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.