Tattered-Tankful
0x6dceb84cb3b8f003c8c4db52c5554303070f4490
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
127
Open notional
$9.8K
Total PnL
$-14.6K
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
36%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 127- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
9638 shares @ 73.6¢·now 76.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.4K
$301.85
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
4709 shares @ 19.1¢·now 24.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$1.2K
$253.99
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
400 shares @ 73.1¢·now 76.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$305.40
$13.00
- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
6000 shares @ 2.2¢·now 3.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$204.00
$72.00
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 39.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$197.50
$2.50
- YES
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
238 shares @ 72.1¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$152.03
$-19.25
- NO
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
105 shares @ 92.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$104.37
$7.72
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
141 shares @ 52.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$61.34
$-11.98
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026?
1420 shares @ 20.1¢·now 3.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$51.13
$-233.88
- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
93 shares @ 41.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.93
$11.67
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.19Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$45.82Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$51.24Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?$35.37Jul 28, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?$56.17Jul 28, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$36.78Jul 28, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$39.00Jul 28, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$7.80Jul 28, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$39.00Jul 28, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$39.06Jul 28, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.26Jul 28, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$7.06Jul 28, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$15.29Jul 28, 03:31 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.22Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $110.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.