Wallet digest

active

Activity score

88/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$2.6K

Total PnL

$-16.5K

Realised

$1.1K

Win rate

100%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 12

YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
13737 shares @ 49.4¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$1.3K
$-5.5K
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
2738 shares @ 66.9¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$479.09
$-1.4K
YES
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
1949 shares @ 28.4¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$399.64
$-154.37
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
403 shares @ 45.4¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$255.80
$73.10
YES
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
450 shares @ 57.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$164.25
$-92.25
YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
35000 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025
$0.00
$-948.15
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?
7500 shares @ 86.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025
$0.00
$-6.5K
NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
2465 shares @ 40.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-999.49
90K
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?
2011 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$0.00
$-1.1K
NO
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
1235 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-999.86

Recent activity

YIELD$0.18Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 8, 00:21 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.18Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.18Jul 3, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.21Jul 1, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.21Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.19Jun 29, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.22Jun 28, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.22Jun 27, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.22Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.24Jun 25, 00:17 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

19/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

100% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity50 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry50 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk68 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 6
Avg trade size: $73.47
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 27, 21:39 UTC
Last active: Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:16:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data