0x6ecf8db9134d76da2571162a96fa198252f39eae
0x6ecf8db9134d76da2571162a96fa198252f39eae
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$15.72
Total PnL
$-38.56
Realised
$-1.06
Win rate
20%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
8 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.93
$0.13
- NO
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
8 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$7.79
$-0.01
- UP
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
150 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
57 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
26 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
18 shares @ 22.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
17 shares @ 25.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.27
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
8 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
7 shares @ 35.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.53
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 24, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 24, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 23, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 23, 20:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$7.87Jul 23, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 16, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 16, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 16, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 16, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?$7.96Jul 15, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.16Jul 13, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.79Jul 3, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 3, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 2, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 2, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 2, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?$1.95Jul 1, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?$1.95Jul 1, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates in June?$1.96Jul 1, 13:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$11.73Jul 1, 07:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 15:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 07:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.