Frayed-Picket
0x6f188f852658b4adfc135d53808d834ef5a7d8f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
177
Open notional
$552.86
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$-20.03
Win rate
1%
113 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 177- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
120 shares @ 66.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$111.00
$31.00
- YES
Will Jannik Sinner be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP Rankings
100 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$92.50
$3.50
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 64.6¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$58.80
$7.10
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
56 shares @ 82.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$49.28
$3.36
- YES
Will Taylor Fritz Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings
60 shares @ 71.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$42.90
$0.30
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
80 shares @ 53.4¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.60
$-15.15
- YES
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
100 shares @ 25.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$25.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
50 shares @ 79.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 13, 2026$21.75
$-17.75
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
30 shares @ 65.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$19.05
$-0.45
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
75 shares @ 42.7¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$18.38
$-13.62
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$18.00Aug 18, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?$45.92Aug 18, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$20.10Aug 18, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$19.50Aug 17, 12:05 UTC
- REWARD$9.77Aug 17, 00:25 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays$109.99Aug 16, 20:54 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)$24.99Aug 16, 20:54 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5$49.99Aug 16, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMCincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen$10.00Aug 16, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMArizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves$70.00Aug 16, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)$10.35Aug 16, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)$1.12Aug 16, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)$5.87Aug 16, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers$17.25Aug 16, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays$10.00Aug 16, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves$6.69Aug 16, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves$3.31Aug 16, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5$3.90Aug 16, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays$5.80Aug 16, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves$5.50Aug 16, 18:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
63/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 113 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
113 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $8.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 03:40 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 13:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 113 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.