Wallet digest

active

Activity score

49/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-635.99

Realised

$-27.75

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?
569 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
NO
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
360 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
217 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-115.00
NO
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026?
149 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-13.00
NO
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?
132 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-25.24
NO
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
36 shares @ 70.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
NO
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
34 shares @ 44.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
NO
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?
27 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-15.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:12 UTC
TRADESELLWill Solana reach $100 in May?$6.57May 29, 18:38 UTC
TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?$13.92May 29, 18:38 UTC
TRADESELLWill Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?$5.68May 29, 18:37 UTC
TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$4.16May 29, 18:37 UTC
TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$12.69May 29, 18:37 UTC
TRADESELLWill there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$13.06May 29, 18:36 UTC
TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$31.02May 29, 18:36 UTC
TRADESELLAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?$39.29May 29, 18:36 UTC
TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$45.55May 29, 18:35 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?$256.43May 29, 18:35 UTC
YIELD$0.01May 29, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.01May 28, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.01May 27, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.01May 26, 00:14 UTC
REDEEMWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$7.53May 25, 06:43 UTC
REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24?$6.52May 25, 06:36 UTC
YIELD$0.01May 25, 00:14 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$7.02May 24, 13:38 UTC
YIELD$0.01May 24, 00:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry50 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk52 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 27
Avg trade size: $34.95
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 18, 21:25 UTC
Last active: May 30, 00:12 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:13:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data