Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.8K

Realised

$73.24

Win rate

45%

22 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5
50041 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-69.96
YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
3180 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-6.36
YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2319 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-53.27
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?
2047 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-10.60
YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
1310 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-6.36
YES
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
1255 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-14.40
YES
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open?
1225 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026
$0.00
$-11.10
YES
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?
1060 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-2.12
YES
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?
711 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-6.03
YES
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
640 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-10.24

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$2.06Jul 26, 13:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$4.43Jul 26, 13:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$4.97Jul 26, 13:11 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$2.50Jul 18, 13:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.07Jul 18, 13:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$0.70Jul 18, 13:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.20Jul 18, 13:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$3.00Jul 18, 13:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.56Jul 18, 13:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$2.04Jul 18, 13:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$9.15Jul 18, 13:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$7.34Jul 18, 13:02 UTC
TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$305.25Jul 18, 13:01 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?$38.72Jul 17, 16:16 UTC
TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?$3.66Jul 17, 16:16 UTC
TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?$11.55Jul 17, 16:16 UTC
TRADESELLWill Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.11Jul 17, 16:15 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

48/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

45% win rate over 22 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity62 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence73 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry49 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 30
Avg trade size: $17.53
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 2, 21:38 UTC
Last active: Jul 26, 13:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 22 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:12:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data