Idle-Soldier
0x70ffe7b3911e0a9474029a42ab8b2f57b799b65f
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
170
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$-11.5K
Realised
$3.1K
Win rate
76%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 170- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
2704 shares @ 18.2¢·now 17.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$473.19
$-20.07
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
1381 shares @ 36.1¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$421.11
$-77.35
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1400 shares @ 18.6¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$315.00
$54.01
- NO
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?
237 shares @ 18.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$172.70
$130.12
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
1950 shares @ 15.7¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$146.25
$-159.75
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
2591 shares @ 6.9¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$137.35
$-40.93
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
118 shares @ 30.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$90.27
$54.87
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
200 shares @ 18.5¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.00
$52.00
- YES
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?
1800 shares @ 13.7¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$81.00
$-166.35
- YES
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30?
304 shares @ 36.7¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$74.57
$-37.26
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLNew pandemic in 2026?$146.54Jul 27, 03:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$50.00Jul 25, 02:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?$116.85Jul 24, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?$299.80Jul 24, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$10.00Jul 24, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$11.55Jul 24, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$2.00Jul 24, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$0.37Jul 24, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$6.07Jul 24, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$6.00Jul 24, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$12.10Jul 24, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$12.34Jul 24, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$4.40Jul 24, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?$23.71Jul 24, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?$1.3KJul 24, 07:19 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.66Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
38 closed markets, 76% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $41.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 09:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.