Scarce-Footnote
0x714f682e577a6892ee921290fd6ad213d11266d5
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$12.8K
Total PnL
$1.9K
Realised
$159.32
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 56.5¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.1K
$-629.99
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
2500 shares @ 12.6¢·now 17.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$425.00
$111.12
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
4000 shares @ 6.7¢·now 10.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$405.98
$138.31
- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
3000 shares @ 8.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$375.00
$135.00
- YES
National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?
402 shares @ 71.4¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$357.55
$70.58
- NO
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
481 shares @ 24.7¢·now 61.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$293.50
$174.77
- NO
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 27.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$292.34
$184.21
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 42.3¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$284.95
$-137.82
- NO
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026?
713 shares @ 11.2¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$270.83
$190.77
- NO
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
300 shares @ 26.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$268.65
$190.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$7.79Jul 28, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$142.25Jul 28, 09:39 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 27, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 27, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$17.25Jul 27, 15:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$1.57Jul 26, 20:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?$14.48Jul 25, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?$16.67Jul 25, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?$99.05Jul 25, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Serhiivka by December 31?$20.98Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?$50.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?$29.72Jul 25, 16:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$0.00Jul 25, 16:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $41.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 11:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 09:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.