Wallet profile

Flawed-Efficacy

0x716445fe00d0a78172b8be46d216e08d15159db6

activity 41/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

41/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-35.6K

Realised

$-14.8K

Win rate

35%

196 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

  • TAKER_REBATE$1.90Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
  • TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$517.76Jul 19, 17:37 UTC
  • YIELD$0.57Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$2.32Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
  • TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$570.21Jul 14, 20:24 UTC
  • YIELD$0.67Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$0.66Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.65Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.66Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.56Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$13.94Jul 9, 21:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.56Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.63Jul 8, 00:55 UTC
  • YIELD$0.56Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$14.60Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • YIELD$0.57Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$55.21Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • YIELD$0.61Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$122.73Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • YIELD$0.56Jul 5, 00:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

35% win rate over 196 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

196 closed markets, 35% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity31 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry42 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk43 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
17
Avg trade size
$736.29
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 30, 21:45 UTC
Last active
Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample
196 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 12:31:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data