Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-45.5pp
24h Vol
$8.1K
Liquidity
$276.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-77.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 45pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $8.1k traded against $276.7k of visible liquidity (0.03× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 22:44SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 21:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 2h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
-45.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -86.5pp at 21:00 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 48 hourly moves
- 22:00 · -86.5pp → 0¢
- 21:00 · -86.5pp → 0¢
- 20:00 · -69.5pp → 17¢
- 18:00 · -72.0pp → 16¢
- 17:00 · -69.0pp → 19¢
- 15:00 · -70.5pp → 17¢
- 13:00 · -63.0pp → 16¢
- 09:00 · -62.5pp → 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
As of market creation, Hims & Hers Health is estimated to release earnings on May 11, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Hims & Hers Health's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.03 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hims & Hers Health reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.03 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Hims & Hers Health releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nasdaqReason
Nasdaq index — Macro / Markets.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of Mon, 11 May 2026 22:44:58 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -45.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -77.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://seekingalpha.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$8.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $12.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $276.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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