Rewarding-Kangaroo
0x71ca04d689bc38c5e4dcda8a4d743f279c5a3501
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
172
Open notional
$93.7K
Total PnL
$-218.9K
Realised
$-42.3K
Win rate
43%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 172- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
99553 shares @ 88.3¢·now 75.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$75.1K
$-12.8K
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
11111 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.1K
$3.5K
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5555 shares @ 88.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.3K
$422.18
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5555 shares @ 67.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.2K
$527.72
- YES
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
211579 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.1K
- YES
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election?
104362 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-159.67
- YES
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election?
49962 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-46.81
- YES
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election?
49962 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-46.81
- YES
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election?
49962 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-46.81
- YES
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election?
49962 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-46.81
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$13.87Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$833.25Jul 28, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$291.57Jul 28, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$863.25Jul 28, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.40Jul 28, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$7.5KJul 28, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$290.46Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.50Jul 28, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$46.29Jul 28, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$51.79Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.88Jul 28, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$681.96Jul 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.46Jul 28, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$176.71Jul 28, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$863.25Jul 28, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$846.83Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$17.52Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$875.03Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$875.03Jul 28, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$173.04Jul 28, 18:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
27/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?
$14.2K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $594.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 19:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.