Frizzy-Toll
0x726fd81c6bc1bb55f12e4eb47f90f82bcf9d887f
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$6.65
Total PnL
$-111.63
Realised
$-4.48
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.56
$1.56
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
2 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.61
$0.61
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$1.19
$0.19
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
573 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
538 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
529 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31?
350 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$1.00Apr 25, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?$1.00Apr 25, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?$1.00Apr 25, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$1.00Apr 25, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$2.25Apr 25, 03:35 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$0.29Apr 25, 03:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$0.11Apr 25, 03:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$0.18Apr 25, 03:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$0.11Apr 25, 03:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$0.16Apr 25, 03:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$0.20Apr 25, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.00Apr 25, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$1.00Apr 25, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$1.00Apr 25, 03:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?$0.12Apr 25, 03:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?$0.39Apr 25, 03:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?$0.17Apr 25, 03:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Qatar strike Iran by April 30?$0.31Apr 25, 03:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UK strike Iran by April 30?$0.24Apr 25, 03:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France strike Iran by April 30?$0.83Apr 25, 03:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $0.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 3, 03:04 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 25, 03:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.