Hopeful-Vanilla
0x72f7210bc212e2c77da05cef3c925353efad4345
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$3.8K
Total PnL
$818.95
Realised
$292.41
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
730 shares @ 75.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$725.29
$175.29
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
853 shares @ 64.5¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$712.17
$162.17
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
760 shares @ 61.5¢·now 70.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$532.23
$64.92
- NO
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
506 shares @ 76.6¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$502.41
$114.45
- NO
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
459 shares @ 85.1¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$389.78
$-0.64
- NO
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
351 shares @ 87.1¢·now 98.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$344.62
$38.75
- NO
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
301 shares @ 79.5¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$237.75
$-1.49
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
284 shares @ 77.3¢·now 81.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$231.70
$11.92
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
140 shares @ 53.3¢·now 53.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$74.42
$-0.46
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
60 shares @ 87.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$58.67
$6.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$75.63Jun 26, 04:26 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$188.35Jun 25, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$59.34Jun 25, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.80Jun 25, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$18.30Jun 25, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$134.57Jun 25, 12:42 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$93.88Jun 25, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$317.21Jun 25, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$129.54Jun 25, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$290.88Jun 25, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$1.38Jun 21, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$6.40Jun 20, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$6.40Jun 20, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$4.13Jun 20, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$6.40Jun 20, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$7.10Jun 20, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$9.90Jun 20, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$1.41Jun 20, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$1.41Jun 20, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$1.41Jun 20, 02:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $37.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 16:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 04:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.