Tragic-Member
0x738a4849db23670996f14dff96a2bc6a8f885996
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-605.25
Realised
$22.03
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
210 shares @ 91.8¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$205.86
$13.09
- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?
251 shares @ 36.2¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$140.79
$49.79
- YES
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
1088 shares @ 44.5¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$119.70
$-364.40
- NO
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?
118 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$105.18
$1.18
- NO
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?
170 shares @ 53.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$102.74
$12.74
- NO
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by December 31?
184 shares @ 56.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$100.32
$-2.76
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
158 shares @ 53.9¢·now 54.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$85.39
$0.39
- YES
Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 7%?
100 shares @ 81.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$82.00
$1.00
- NO
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?
174 shares @ 33.3¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$74.93
$16.83
- NO
Jacob Elordi and Kendall Jenner engaged in 2026?
88 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?$77.33Jul 29, 00:48 UTC
- REWARD$1.13Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLVisa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5%-9.5%?$3.84Jul 28, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?$114.27Jul 28, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?$36.07Jul 28, 18:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?$9.30Jul 28, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$19.83Jul 28, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?$4.65Jul 28, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$31.35Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$85.89Jul 28, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$5.04Jul 28, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 20,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?$1.22Jul 28, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?$39.00Jul 28, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$105.49Jul 28, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?$38.27Jul 28, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $140.5?$9.91Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?$22.74Jul 28, 03:41 UTC
- REWARD$1.32Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?$10.00Jul 27, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026?$16.39Jul 27, 21:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $36.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 19:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.