Simplistic-Altitude
0x748c40ef9918508fbd58896b5c23c934e5c2214a
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$6.16
Total PnL
$-80.26
Realised
$-29.49
Win rate
14%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
5 shares @ 32.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.77
$2.02
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2 shares @ 3.8¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.69
$1.61
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?
10 shares @ 17.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.70
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7?
180 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7?
172 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7?
150 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 7?
150 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 7?
139 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June 7?
131 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 7?
131 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 7?$1.10Jun 7, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June 8?$1.10Jun 7, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 7?$1.10Jun 7, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7?$1.10Jun 7, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7?$1.10Jun 7, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 9?$1.10Jun 7, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 7?$1.18Jun 7, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 7?$1.10Jun 7, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7?$1.10Jun 7, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June 7?$1.10Jun 7, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on June 8?$1.10Jun 7, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on June 8?$1.10Jun 7, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 7?$1.10Jun 7, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 7?$1.10Jun 7, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lighter reach $10 before 2027?$0.05May 28, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMJang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?$0.00May 28, 16:42 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? $0.00May 28, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?$0.00May 28, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMOver $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?$0.00May 28, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$0.00May 28, 16:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
42 closed markets, 14% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $1.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 18:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 7, 13:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.