Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Probability
53¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$20.72
Liquidity
$22.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-14.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 53¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5238h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 15.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5238.1h
- 17:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5238h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-7.5pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.
Biggest hourly move: -8.0pp at 17:00 (to 52¢).
Show all 11 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -8.0pp → 52¢
- 15:00 · -6.0pp → 54¢
- 13:00 · -4.0pp → 56¢
- 10:00 · -3.0pp → 57¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 60¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 60¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 60¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 60¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 60¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 60¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 60¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election. If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.