Harmless-Prior
0x74b853b8abcb97ef278f4c442e8091de36e40c87
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$312.24
Total PnL
$-3.33
Realised
$-41.72
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
544 shares @ 22.8¢·now 53.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$289.95
$165.92
- NO
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?
20 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.85
$1.65
- YES
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
16 shares @ 22.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.20
$-0.32
- YES
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.24
$-0.61
- YES
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
513 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-128.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the People’s Party (PPLE) win 180 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 26, 11AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMMorgan State Bears vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMSouthern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill La Jumpa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $700M at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 26, 2AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMAlabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 7?$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "El Salvador" this week? (March 8)$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMPortsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5$758.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMKHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. HC Sochi$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMMajor Space Weather event this week? (March 22-28)$0.00Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYKHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. HC Sochi$294.12Apr 23, 14:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $227.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 07:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 21:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.