Unlucky-Ox
0x74dc0b6ead0c3841bef5ebdf9a7b8d0499652762
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$143.31
Total PnL
$-76.25
Realised
$-1.65
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?
19 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$16.79
$-0.10
- NO
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
13 shares @ 79.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.20
$1.20
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
23 shares @ 43.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.05
$1.05
- YES
Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
11 shares @ 89.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$10.62
$0.62
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
12 shares @ 82.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.55
$0.55
- NO
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 73.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.07
$0.07
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
37 shares @ 27.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$9.44
$-0.56
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
25 shares @ 40.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.38
$-0.63
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
116 shares @ 8.6¢·now 7.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$8.43
$-1.57
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
7 shares @ 71.0¢·now 83.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$5.90
$0.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?$16.96Aug 21, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?$5.19Aug 21, 12:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $7.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 00:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 12:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.