Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
Probability
22¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$27.49
Liquidity
$25.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.5h
- 19:30SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.
Biggest hourly move: -13.5pp at 2d ago (to 21¢).
Show all 67 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -12.0pp → 22¢
- 17:00 · -12.0pp → 22¢
- 16:00 · -12.5pp → 21¢
- 15:00 · -12.5pp → 21¢
- 13:00 · -12.5pp → 21¢
- 12:00 · -12.5pp → 21¢
- 10:00 · -12.5pp → 21¢
- 09:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 08:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 06:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 05:00 · -12.0pp → 21¢
- 03:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 02:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 00:00 · -12.5pp → 21¢
- 22:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 20:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -13.5pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -13.5pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -13.5pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -13.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -13.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -13.0pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 21¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +3.5pp → 33¢
- 4d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +4.5pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +5.0pp → 35¢
- 4d ago · +5.0pp → 35¢
- 4d ago · +5.0pp → 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.