Constant-Middle
0x750a1c21c11f59046f89243de4385f3c7c80d86c
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$12.8K
Total PnL
$699.61
Realised
$511.97
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
11933 shares @ 80.5¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.5K
$1.9K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1500 shares @ 70.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.3K
$232.50
- NO
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
15 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.59
$-0.59
- NO
US strikes Nigeria by December 31?
999 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-968.81
- NO
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?
587 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-510.69
- YES
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?
324 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-158.86
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
250 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-105.00
- NO
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
250 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-42.50
- NO
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?
247 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-37.01
- YES
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
200 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?$606.64Jul 23, 14:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2.0KJul 23, 14:31 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.14Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.14Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $20.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 14:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.