Common-Captain
0x7649a9551f7e4c20222f093af87d7e4e1cc792c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$296.97
Total PnL
$-12.52
Realised
$-23.14
Win rate
28%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?
67 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$67.00
$28.14
- SYRACUSE ORANGE
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange
50 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$50.00
$25.50
- NO
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
32 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$32.00
$8.64
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?
19 shares @ 43.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$19.00
$10.83
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
18 shares @ 87.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$18.00
$2.22
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 16 be greater than 2,500,000?
15 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$15.00
$9.15
- NO
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
14 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$14.00
$2.52
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
12 shares @ 78.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$11.98
$2.62
- NO
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
9 shares @ 38.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$9.00
$5.50
- YES
Will António José Seguro win the first round?
7 shares @ 32.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$7.00
$4.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?$23.36Jan 15, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$1.85Jan 15, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$3.78Jan 15, 22:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$3.78Jan 15, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?$1.30Jan 15, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?$8.14Jan 15, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?$3.70Jan 15, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$10.83Jan 15, 21:51 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?$3.90Jan 15, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLFrench election called by June 30, 2026?$4.29Jan 15, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?$4.29Jan 15, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?$10.53Jan 15, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrench election called by June 30, 2026?$4.16Jan 15, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$4.10Jan 15, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?$4.26Jan 15, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?$7.10Jan 15, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?$5.67Jan 15, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?$4.86Jan 15, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?$1.33Jan 15, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$11.21Jan 15, 19:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 14:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 15, 23:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.