0x769d4bb0d555ccb87ac71ad470ae0a469cd005bf
0x769d4bb0d555ccb87ac71ad470ae0a469cd005bf
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$281.41
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-595.11
Win rate
36%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
250 shares @ 35.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$250.00
$162.50
- YES
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
9 shares @ 72.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$8.62
$2.37
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?
30 shares @ 44.4¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.55
$-7.77
- YES
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$1.00
- NO
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?
4 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$4.13
$0.08
- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
3 shares @ 22.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$2.93
$2.28
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
2 shares @ 63.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$2.00
$0.73
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 25.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.17
$-0.70
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 13.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.01
$0.52
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.00
$0.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?$358.55Apr 15, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?$254.05Apr 15, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$1.63Apr 15, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$0.03Apr 15, 13:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?$805.43Apr 15, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?$8.67Apr 15, 11:49 UTC
- TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$129.35Apr 15, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$47.76Apr 15, 11:03 UTC
- TRADESELLHouthis successfully target shipping by April 30?$21.89Apr 15, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?$0.27Apr 15, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$27.29Apr 15, 10:08 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?$3.18Apr 15, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?$24.65Apr 14, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?$0.68Apr 14, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?$2.08Apr 14, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?$4.09Apr 14, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?$88.50Apr 14, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?$0.00Apr 12, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$0.00Apr 12, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?$10.00Apr 12, 20:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $103.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 8, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 15, 18:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.