Vivid-Bustle
0x775b85f3cf866e8e94f1c322e208e36a8f884533
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$53.50
Total PnL
$-345.95
Realised
$18.73
Win rate
52%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- NO
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
20 shares @ 79.4¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.79
$1.82
- NO
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?
9 shares @ 94.0¢·now 92.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.00
$-0.09
- NO
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 81.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.03
$0.52
- NO
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
4 shares @ 84.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.66
$0.34
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
18 shares @ 28.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.26
$-1.81
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
14 shares @ 45.9¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.20
$-3.05
- YES
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 55.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.95
$0.20
- NO
Tabi FDV above $250M one day after launch?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.90
$0.37
- NO
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?
37 shares @ 13.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.00
$-2.78
- NO
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026?
3 shares @ 64.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.89
$0.22
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUnit FDV above $200M one day after launch?$1.32Jul 20, 14:06 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5$14.50Jul 19, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5$2.74Jul 19, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohamed Salah join Fenerbahce?$6.43Jul 19, 15:39 UTC
- REDEEMFrance leading at halftime?$1.46Jul 18, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$0.05Jul 18, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$0.17Jul 18, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$1.45Jul 18, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$5.44Jul 15, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohamed Salah join Fenerbahce?$1.01Jul 15, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs$3.63Jul 11, 11:51 UTC
- MERGETotal Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?$9.52Jul 11, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?$8.09Jul 11, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?$3.20Jul 11, 10:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?$2.77Jul 11, 06:42 UTC
- REDEEMFrance leading at halftime?$8.25Jul 9, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$8.01Jul 9, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMTotal Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?$0.00Jul 9, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?$1.15Jul 9, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026?$4.14Jul 8, 17:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
31 closed markets, 52% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 21:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 14:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.