Short-Term-Textbook
0x777e5ad32ac731291d3c68c3e2df889cc59cf226
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
111
Open notional
$16.44
Total PnL
$-301.41
Realised
$8.10
Win rate
93%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 111- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
60 shares @ 8.3¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.50
$-0.50
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
102 shares @ 9.8¢·now 3.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.42
$-6.58
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
59 shares @ 17.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.24
$-6.76
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
28 shares @ 7.2¢·now 4.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.22
$-0.78
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.00
$-1.00
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
11 shares @ 8.7¢·now 6.9¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.79
$-0.21
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.62
$-0.38
- YES
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.34
$-0.66
- YES
Trump on $250 bill this year?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.28
$-0.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$1.04Jul 28, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 27, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 1?$1.07Jul 27, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on July 28?$1.07Jul 22, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on July 28?$1.07Jul 22, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 22?$1.07Jul 22, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 22?$1.07Jul 22, 02:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on July 19?$1.20Jul 19, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 19?$1.06Jul 19, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 19?$1.01Jul 19, 09:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$0.98Jul 19, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$1.04Jul 19, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.05Jul 19, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.05Jul 19, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.06Jul 19, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.76Jul 19, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.06Jul 19, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.05Jul 19, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.05Jul 19, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.99Jul 19, 09:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 13:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 07:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.