PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Trump on $250 bill this year?

Probability

3¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.2pp

24h Vol

$50.00

Liquidity

$36.1K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.0pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
Jul 7, 2026, 12:00 UTCJul 14, 2026, 11:41 UTC
updated 11:41:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-14T11-41Z

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Trump on $250 bill this year? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Trump on $250 bill this year? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4068.3h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.8pp at Jul 11, 10:00 UTC (to 4¢).

Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
  • Jul 12, 11:00 UTC · -3.6pp → 4¢
  • Jul 12, 10:00 UTC · -3.6pp → 4¢
  • Jul 11, 17:00 UTC · -3.8pp → 4¢
  • Jul 11, 15:00 UTC · -3.8pp → 4¢
  • Jul 11, 14:00 UTC · -3.8pp → 4¢
  • Jul 11, 12:00 UTC · -3.8pp → 4¢
  • Jul 11, 11:00 UTC · -3.8pp → 4¢
  • Jul 11, 10:00 UTC · -3.8pp → 4¢
updated 11:41:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 11:41:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a $250 bill featuring an image or portrait of Donald Trump is officially issued by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Only a $250 bill will qualify. Coins, or other denominations of paper currency will not count. A bill will be considered "officially issued" if the U.S. federal government makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. The announcement, proposal, design, or authorization of such a bill without the bill being issued will not count. A qualifying bill must be legal tender. Commemorative notes produced for a limited production run will qualify, provided they carry legal tender status. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Trump on $250 bill this year?"?

As of Tue, 14 Jul 2026 11:41:33 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.2pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -5.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$50.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $24.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $36.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket