0x785386856456de26ac04ba1f5e3c49b92e7936d8
0x785386856456de26ac04ba1f5e3c49b92e7936d8
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
134
Open notional
$7.4K
Total PnL
$-495.00
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
47%
83 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 134- NO
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?
1898 shares @ 90.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.9K
$188.37
- NO
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
1026 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$969.23
$169.23
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
916 shares @ 54.6¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$847.25
$347.26
- NO
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
744 shares @ 93.4¢·now 97.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$725.35
$30.32
- NO
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
393 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$392.58
$153.11
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
328 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$327.86
$127.87
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?
302 shares @ 44.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$302.22
$167.82
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
519 shares @ 78.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$293.13
$-111.62
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
236 shares @ 63.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$236.08
$86.93
- NO
GTA VI released before June 2026?
164 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$163.76
$108.08
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.17Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 83 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
83 closed markets, 47% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 83 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.