0x78ec920f3ea178e25bfeb92dcfd856c4e97f2d07
0x78ec920f3ea178e25bfeb92dcfd856c4e97f2d07
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$132.27
Total PnL
$-202.48
Realised
$117.21
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
25 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$25.00
$3.00
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 71.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.63
$3.77
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 33.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
25 shares @ 51.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.88
$-1.88
- YES
Kash Patel out by December 31?
25 shares @ 66.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.00
$-7.50
- YES
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
25 shares @ 72.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.38
$-11.63
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.88
$-0.13
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
50 shares @ 2.1¢·now 8.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.08
$3.02
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
25 shares @ 16.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.62
$-0.38
- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
300 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.45
$-2.69
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.