Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
Probability
41¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$18.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 41¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.0h
- 17:57SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 40¢.
Biggest hourly move: +13.0pp at 2d ago (to 46¢).
Show all 33 hour-by-hour ticks
- 11:00 · +3.0pp → 41¢
- 00:00 · +6.0pp → 40¢
- 22:00 · +7.0pp → 40¢
- 21:00 · +6.0pp → 39¢
- 20:00 · +7.0pp → 41¢
- 18:00 · +10.0pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · +10.5pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 39¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 39¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +7.5pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +12.5pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · +13.0pp → 46¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 39¢
- 3d ago · +6.5pp → 39¢
- 3d ago · +6.5pp → 39¢
- 3d ago · +5.0pp → 39¢
- 3d ago · +5.0pp → 39¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Susie Wiles ceases to be the White House Chief of Staff for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Wiles' resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.