Complex-Childhood
0x7a455fcac8ba7397d44534f6dbb6481e66f54eec
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$409.29
Realised
$-14.77
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?
3123 shares @ 15.2¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$562.22
$85.92
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1114 shares @ 14.4¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$473.39
$312.89
- NO
ECB rate cut in 2026?
397 shares @ 46.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$339.42
$154.71
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
200 shares @ 72.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$167.00
$23.00
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 65.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$165.00
$35.00
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
328 shares @ 4.9¢·now 33.1¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$108.64
$92.46
- YES
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
200 shares @ 17.5¢·now 19.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$38.10
$3.10
- YES
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
150 shares @ 23.8¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.25
$-3.45
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 10.8¢·now 16.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$32.10
$10.50
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
164 shares @ 7.7¢·now 19.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.63
$19.02
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?$42.45Jun 10, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?$33.49Jun 10, 07:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$81.00Jun 9, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?$190.79Jun 9, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?$104.78Jun 9, 17:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?$72.16Jun 8, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$33.05Jun 8, 16:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$81.00Jun 6, 10:42 UTC
- TRADESELLECB rate cut in 2026?$73.51Jun 6, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$8.11Jun 6, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?$52.48Jun 6, 10:36 UTC
- REDEEMVictor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5$9.09Jun 6, 07:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 6, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $54.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.