Worse-Crowd
0x7b52dd61497802db47aae6c35a28e44c9ae7589a
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$419.79
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-226.99
Win rate
50%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
126 shares @ 88.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$119.01
$7.97
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
124 shares @ 79.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$112.07
$13.80
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
103 shares @ 97.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.84
$0.84
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
71 shares @ 70.8¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.05
$4.05
- YES
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
153 shares @ 22.9¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.73
$-11.27
- YES
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
29 shares @ 35.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.14
$-1.86
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
557 shares @ 59.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.95
$-328.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6?
1650 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.40
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 6?
1050 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.20
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
1027 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-280.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 2?$200.20Jul 2, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?$300.30Jul 2, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on July 2?$200.20Jul 2, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 2?$300.30Jul 2, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 2?$200.01Jul 2, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on July 2?$200.01Jul 2, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 2?$300.02Jul 2, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?$200.01Jul 2, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?$100.01Jul 2, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$56.10Jun 30, 23:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$2.02Jun 30, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$640.60Jun 30, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$505.97Jun 30, 23:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20?$100.10Jun 20, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20?$100.10Jun 20, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 19?$100.10Jun 20, 04:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 19?$100.10Jun 20, 04:15 UTC
- REWARD$6.99Jun 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?$3.83Jun 19, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the USA vs Australia FIFA World Cup Match?$0.10Jun 19, 23:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $86.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 10:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 16:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.