Pleased-Caption
0x7d0b6caea7daba1bee8474b3be53fafb789cb8b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$128.22
Total PnL
$-224.97
Realised
$0.73
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
164 shares @ 45.2¢·now 39.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$64.88
$-9.39
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 39.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$37.50
$-1.50
- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
40 shares @ 49.5¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$18.60
$-1.20
- YES
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
20 shares @ 32.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$2.70
$-3.70
- NO
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
150 shares @ 58.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.25
$-84.75
- YES
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?
200 shares @ 35.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.90
$-70.10
- YES
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
50 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.47
$-5.03
- YES
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
47 shares @ 26.0¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.47
$-11.73
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%?
40 shares @ 38.5¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.26
$-15.14
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
120 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.18
$-1.62
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$9.85Jun 26, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?$9.80Jun 26, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?$0.08Jun 26, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$39.00Jun 26, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$4.07Jun 26, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$2.20Jun 26, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$22.00Jun 26, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$46.00Jun 26, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?$9.92Jun 26, 07:36 UTC
- REWARD$0.11Jun 24, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$2.93Jun 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$37.41Jun 23, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$0.62Jun 23, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$2.00Jun 23, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$30.87Jun 23, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$5.30Jun 23, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$5.35Jun 23, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$5.40Jun 23, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$5.50Jun 23, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$33.00Jun 23, 05:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $20.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 05:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 15:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.