Hoarse-Tumbler
0x7d9224d660a5e465bbc66a3eaa8c734507f7f967
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$2.81
Total PnL
$-59.11
Realised
$5.25
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
38 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 6PM ET
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?
80 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.04
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
67 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
55 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,800 on January 26?
38 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$3.11Jul 21, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score$1.02Jun 15, 03:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?$1.94Apr 14, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?$5.00Apr 3, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?$1.00Apr 3, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?$1.00Apr 3, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?$5.07Mar 13, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?$3.60Mar 6, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 6, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 6, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 6, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?$5.04Mar 5, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?$5.00Mar 5, 01:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?$10.00Mar 4, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?$10.00Mar 4, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$1.27Mar 4, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$1.00Mar 4, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,600 in March?$1.86Mar 4, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?$2.05Mar 4, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 4?$2.39Mar 4, 14:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 29, 19:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 16:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.