0x7dbf3c6e6bb725c3570781b8caa025e0304055c3
0x7dbf3c6e6bb725c3570781b8caa025e0304055c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
170
Open notional
$1.54
Total PnL
$-545.60
Realised
$0.60
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 170- YES
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.89
$-0.11
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
16 shares @ 6.3¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.63
$-0.38
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
5 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.02
$-2.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 10?
3750 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.98
- UP
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 9AM ET
3230 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on March 10?
2308 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-13.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 63°F or below on March 10?
1834 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 6PM ET
1667 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 23?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$1.00Jun 25, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?$0.25Jun 25, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?$0.30Jun 25, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?$0.27Jun 25, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?$0.18Jun 25, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?$1.05Jun 25, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$0.23Jun 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$0.48Jun 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$0.00Jun 25, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$1.04Jun 25, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$1.04Jun 25, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.46Jun 24, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?$0.50Jun 24, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?$1.00Jun 24, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?$0.01Jun 23, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23?$1.57Jun 23, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 23?$1.57Jun 23, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23?$1.41Jun 23, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.45Jun 23, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.01Jun 23, 09:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $0.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 14:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 19:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.